US preparing to destroy China according to anti-Soviet recipe
According to General Charles Brown it would be useful to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific Region
The United States for the first time at the level of senior military leaders recognized the “usefulness” of deploying medium-range missiles in Asia – which means against China. In this connection, the United States is making such an aggravation, why is the situation threatening a recurrence of the Caribbean crisis, and what does all this have to do with Russia?
According to General Charles Brown, commander of the US Air Force in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it would be “useful” to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles (INF) in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). At the same time, Brown emphasized that he was not aware of any negotiations or consultations regarding this kind of American initiative with the countries of the region. This means that we are talking about a possible unilateral step by the United States. China, on the other hand, considers this kind of deployment of missiles in close proximity to its borders as a direct threat to national security.
Statements from the mouths of the chiefs of individual operational commands of the US armed forces indicate that plans for deploying INF troops in the APR are already being worked out at their level. The political “go-ahead” for creating such plans, apparently, has been made publicly earlier.
Planned locations for future American INF operations in Asia have not yet been announced, but they can be determined based on the structure of US allied treaties in the region. Most likely, Japan or South Korea can be used as a springboard for the deployment of American INF forces, since both of these states are still critically dependent on the United States. The deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles in South Korea, by the way, creates an extremely dangerous precedent: the distance between Seoul and Beijing along the shortest air route is only about 950 kilometers. This is half as much as it was between Moscow and the leading positions of the American INF forces in Europe in the early 1980s, when a little more than 2,000 kilometers separated such missiles from the capital of the USSR.
As a result, the deployment of American INF forces in South Korea will already be an extremely dangerous step. In fact, it will be about the fact that the United States will have the non-illusory possibility of launching the first disarming missile strike on China, from which it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to defend the Chinese capital. Just due to the fact that the flight time of such American missiles will be no more than 10 minutes. And this, in turn, determines the need to immediately launch the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal towards the United States at any missile launch from the territory of South Korea – in order to avoid losing control after the destruction or critical destruction of the Chinese strategic missile response system.
It is also worth mentioning that in the extreme case, the United States can bring out even the “Taiwan map” by going to deploy its missiles on this island, which is for now virtually independent of mainland China. In August 2019, Taiwan announced the adoption of its own Yun Feng supersonic cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 km, which the island press directly called “anti-Beijing.” On the island, these missiles are called “defensive weapons”, but it is assumed that in the event of a military conflict, their goal will not be the Chinese Navy or the landing forces of the PRC army, but infrastructure facilities deep in mainland China.
In particular, it can strike at major cities such as Hong Kong or Shanghai, as well as targets in the economically developed provinces of Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Yun Feng will be able to hit important facilities in China, including nuclear power plants, strategic oil storage facilities, high-speed railways, bridges and tunnels. Taiwan is a real “unsinkable aircraft carrier”: most of the densely populated and developed coastal areas of southern China are only 300-800 kilometers away from it.
So far, the relationship between Washington and Taipei is being formed with an eye on the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972, when then US President Richard Nixon went to normalize relations with China, part of which was the rejection of large-scale military and political support for Taiwan. However, military-technical cooperation and the supply of American weapons to Taipei continued all this time. And this suggests that the return of US military bases to the island, after their withdrawal in 1972, can also become quite probable.
Such a step will be determined, of course, by the general direction of Sino-American relations, since after it the relationship between the United States and China can be considered completely ruined. If this happens, the deployment of American INF forces in Taiwan, besides carrying nuclear warheads, looks extremely logical. And, of course, even more dangerous than in Japan or South Korea.
A controlled escalation in the issue of INF in the APR is necessary for the United States in order to restrain China in its current state of the “economic giant” and the “military average.” It is this goal that has been declared several times by American politicians and the military as the main plan of the United States – because America does not want the global thermonuclear war with the PRC to the same extent as with the USSR during the Cold War.
Today, China, in terms of nuclear missile potential, is much like the USSR of the mid-1960s. Its launchers and missiles are small and imperfect, strategic bombers are copies of obsolete Soviet Tu-16s, and the geostrategic position is extremely vulnerable. China has virtually no military bases outside its own territory, especially bases adapted for basing nuclear weapons carriers. As a result, the blockade strategy in the Asia-Pacific region and escalation by deploying the INF Treaty may well work – for now, China’s standard response to it seems disproportionately costly and is associated with an almost complete restructuring of the Chinese nuclear “triad”. In fact, today China wants to drag it into an equally devastating arms race that ruined the late USSR.
It is also interesting that China, which in the past was not bound by the provisions of the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), already has at its disposal ground-based medium-range cruise missiles. This is the CJ-10K, which is an improved replica of the Soviet X-55 cruise missile. In the region of 2001, China bought documentation and prototypes of the X-55 through Kiev, using, in addition, the services of the Dnepropetrovsk Design Bureau Yuzhnoye, which largely helped China improve the X-55 to the level of CJ-10K. In particular, the Chinese got rid of a retractable engine that boosts the missile’s radar signature. To date, China has already tested the CJ-10K in land, air and sea versions, having at its disposal a practically universal cruise missile.
As a result, his response to such steps can be carried out in a non-standard manner. In addition to targeting American missile bases in the Asia-Pacific region, China can just as easily deploy its own cruise and, in the future, ballistic missiles, for example, in Cuba or Venezuela, with which Beijing has recently built extremely friendly economic and political ties.
Of course, for now, such retaliatory Chinese steps are also “beyond the horizon” of the final transition to the Sino-American conflict from the current cooling of relations, but in such a possible changed reality they look extremely logical. Indeed, it was in this logic that the USSR acted at the time of the Caribbean crisis, “exchanging” a missile base in Cuba for the liquidation of the positions of American nuclear missiles in Turkey.
For Russia, such an aggravation of the conflict between China and the United States looks, unfortunately, also extremely dangerous. The hypothetical deployment of the INF in Japan or in South Korea in fact puts at risk the entire infrastructure of Russia in the Far East. Since for exactly the same reasons, any missile launch from the territory of these countries can reasonably be perceived as an attack on Russia – with an extremely narrow temporary “window” for making decisions and launching retaliatory actions.
According to a statement by US President Donald Trump in October 2018, anticipating the country’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the United States will continue to build up nuclear power until the rest of the countries “come to their senses.” Separately, he emphasized that these words “addressed directly to Russia and China.” Accepting such a general political message and taking into account the latest American statements that are already coming from the military level, one can understand that the US is trying to scare China and Russia with a new nuclear missile race. And they do this using the same INF card, which they tried to blackmail the USSR twice – in the early 1960s and late 1970s. Both times, they deployed their missiles dangerously close to the borders of the Soviet Union – and expectedly received an extremely unpleasant geopolitical and military response for the United States itself.
Therefore, in such a situation, you can only complain about the short memory of the American elite. After all, if John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan did not succeed, then why should Donald Trump succeed? Or does the United States believe that China is an easier opponent than the USSR?
Probably both of these questions have different answers than it is today presented in the calculations and plans of the White House and the Pentagon.